Original educational analysis
Our Results
By Sports Forensics editorial analysis
Updated November 01, 2026, 01:35 PM PST · Statistics checked November 01, 2026, 01:35 PM PST
What we projected. What happened. Every published forecast stays on record, including misses.
Only verified finals count toward results. Projections were prepared before play and published after verified start plus ten minutes.
NBA
1 finished · 0 awaiting final scores
Winner called correctly: 1 of 1 decisive games.
Average score miss: 16.00 points per team.
Early record: this sample is too small to establish predictive skill. Ties are tracked separately below.
Blazers–Jazz: more assists per game, a smaller assisted-basket share
Published Oct 31, 12:22 PM PDT
| Team | Our projection | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 113 | 90 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 121 | 112 |
Winner called correctly · Average score miss: 16.00 points per team.
Verified final score source · checked Nov 01, 10:34 AM PST
More detail
Predicted gap missed by 14.00 points. Scoring bias: +16.00 points per team (positive means our scores were too high).
Posted 10.25 minutes after first verified play observation; exact start time unavailable. 15 seconds beyond the ten-minute target.
More about this league’s record
Average gap miss: 14.00 points. Average scoring bias: +16.00. Actual ties: 0. Predicted ties: 0.
Simple-baseline average score miss: 16.00 across 1 comparable games. The initial forecasts use this baseline themselves; they have not demonstrated an improvement over it.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
1 finished · 0 awaiting final scores
Winner called correctly: 1 of 1 decisive games.
Average score miss: 4.50 points per team.
Early record: this sample is too small to establish predictive skill. Ties are tracked separately below.
Notre Dame–Navy: what third-down percentage misses about fourth down
Published Oct 31, 09:16 AM PDT
| Team | Our projection | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Navy Midshipmen | 22 | 13 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 35 | 35 |
Winner called correctly · Average score miss: 4.50 points per team.
Verified final score source · checked Nov 01, 10:34 AM PST
More detail
Predicted gap missed by 9.00 points. Scoring bias: +4.50 points per team (positive means our scores were too high).
Posted 10.61 minutes after recorded start. 37 seconds beyond the ten-minute target.
More about this league’s record
Average gap miss: 9.00 points. Average scoring bias: +4.50. Actual ties: 0. Predicted ties: 0.
Simple-baseline average score miss: 4.50 across 1 comparable games. The initial forecasts use this baseline themselves; they have not demonstrated an improvement over it.
NFL
1 finished · 0 awaiting final scores
Winner called correctly: 1 of 1 decisive games.
Average score miss: 12.00 points per team.
Early record: this sample is too small to establish predictive skill. Ties are tracked separately below.
Ravens–Bills: why sacks change the passing-efficiency comparison
Published Nov 01, 10:12 AM PST
| Team | Our projection | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 28 | 36 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 10 |
Winner called correctly · Average score miss: 12.00 points per team.
Verified final score source · checked Nov 01, 01:35 PM PST
More detail
Predicted gap missed by 24.00 points. Scoring bias: +4.00 points per team (positive means our scores were too high).
Posted 10.21 minutes after recorded start. 13 seconds beyond the ten-minute target.
More about this league’s record
Average gap miss: 24.00 points. Average scoring bias: +4.00. Actual ties: 0. Predicted ties: 0.
Simple-baseline average score miss: 12.00 across 1 comparable games. The initial forecasts use this baseline themselves; they have not demonstrated an improvement over it.
NHL
1 finished · 0 awaiting final scores
Winner called correctly: 1 of 1 decisive games.
Average score miss: 2.50 goals per team.
Early record: this sample is too small to establish predictive skill. Ties are tracked separately below.
Jets–Hurricanes: how shot suppression builds a differential
Published Nov 01, 10:16 AM PST
| Team | Our projection | Final |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 4 | 7 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2 | 0 |
Winner called correctly · Average score miss: 2.50 goals per team.
Verified final score source · checked Nov 01, 12:49 PM PST
More detail
Predicted gap missed by 5.00 goals. Scoring bias: -0.50 goals per team (positive means our scores were too high).
Posted 10.43 minutes after first verified play observation; exact start time unavailable. 26 seconds beyond the ten-minute target.
More about this league’s record
Average gap miss: 5.00 goals. Average scoring bias: -0.50. Actual ties: 0. Predicted ties: 0.
Simple-baseline average score miss: 2.50 across 1 comparable games. The initial forecasts use this baseline themselves; they have not demonstrated an improvement over it.
How we calculate the record
Average score miss is the average absolute difference between projected and final scores across both teams. Gap miss compares the predicted margin with the actual margin. Scoring bias is projected minus actual scoring per team. Games carry equal weight within each league; different sports are never pooled. Actual ties and predicted ties are excluded from winner accuracy and counted separately.
Finals include overtime and shootout scoring when included in the source’s final score. Predictions remain unchanged. Input sources, forecast publication receipts and final-score snapshots are retained. Final-score corrections require an audited review. No forecasts are reconstructed for articles that originally had none.