Sports Forensics learning guide
How one shot changes a small sample
By Lou · Sports Forensics editorial · October 21, 2026
Evergreen educational guide. All numerical examples below are hypothetical; they are not current player or team reports.
Read makes and attempts together
A shooting percentage is more informative when its numerator and denominator remain visible. Two percentages can be close together while resting on very different amounts of evidence. Always identify the competition, date range and shot category.
Worked example: invented numbers
Player A makes 4 of 10 shots: 40%. One additional made shot in the same ten-shot sample would make it 50%, a change of ten percentage points. Player B makes 40 of 100: also 40%. Changing one miss to a make in that sample produces 41%, a change of one percentage point.
What the example demonstrates
The same single-shot change moves a ten-attempt sample much more than a hundred-attempt sample. It does not prove that the player with more attempts is better. Shot difficulty, role and defensive attention are not measured by this calculation.
Avoid combining different questions
Keep two-point shots, three-point shots and free throws distinct when discussing accuracy. If you combine them into a broader measure, explain the calculation. A change in the types of shots taken can alter an overall percentage even when accuracy within each category changes little.
Before making a claim
Check the official box score and record makes, attempts and dates. Describe a short streak as a short streak. A larger sample is useful context, but different seasons and changing roles may not be directly comparable.
Official references
These references support statistical terminology and scoring conventions. The examples and interpretations are our own. League names identify the sport covered and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Questions or corrections? Contact Lou. Read our method for how evidence, interpretation and corrections are separated.