How a finding earns the word “finding”.
Most sports analysis presents inference at the confidence of evidence. The method below exists to make that impossible to do quietly.
Three separated fields
Every claim we publish is written in three parts, kept visibly distinct:
Anchor
The raw observation and its source: the dataset, the sample size, the date range. No interpretation.
Observation
What the anchor shows on its own terms, stated without reaching for a cause.
Finding / Test
The interpretation, plus the specific condition that would show it to be wrong.
Inference cannot be promoted to evidence without visibly moving between fields. A reader who trusts nothing else can audit any claim by reading only the middle one.
Chronology before memory
Seasons are read forward, in order, rather than sampled backward from whatever outcome is already known. Reading backward from a result finds a cause every time, which is exactly why it proves nothing.
The contradiction register
We keep a public list of findings that later failed to hold. It is the single most useful page on this site, and the least flattering. An analysis operation unwilling to publish its own misses is asking to be taken on faith.
What we do not do
- We do not sell betting selections or “plays”
- We do not accept, place, or broker wagers
- We do not publish win rates, records, or profit claims
- We do not describe any outcome as guaranteed, locked, or safe