Original educational analysis
Steelers–Saints: the denominator behind third-down success
By Sports Forensics editorial analysis
Published October 25, 2026, 06:44 AM PDT · Statistics checked October 25, 2026, 05:30 AM PDT
Historical baseline for the October 25, 2026 matchup: The figures below cover each team's first six games of the 2026 regular season, retrieved before this matchup began. They exclude Steelers–Saints and are not a live score or an account of its opening possessions.
The same number of failures can hide behind different rates
New Orleans entered with 37 third-down conversions in 87 attempts. Pittsburgh had 25 in 76. Dividing conversions by attempts gives 42.5% for the Saints and 32.9% for the Steelers, a gap of 9.6 percentage points. That is a meaningful difference in how often each offense extended a series when it reached third down. It is also a statistic with a denominator worth examining.
Subtract the successful attempts instead: New Orleans failed on 50 third downs, while Pittsburgh failed on 51. The Saints recorded 12 more conversions but faced 11 more third downs. Thus the conversion gap does not mean Pittsburgh suffered 12 more failed third downs. Those are different questions. A rate describes success per opportunity; the underlying counts describe the volume of those opportunities.
Why yardage does not follow the percentage automatically
The official team pages listed 1,929 total offensive yards for New Orleans and 1,923 for Pittsburgh: only six yards apart over six games. More third-down conversions did not translate into a comparable separation in cumulative yardage. These aggregates cannot establish why. An offense can gain a first down before third down, create a large gain on one play, or accumulate short gains across several conversions. Starting field position and the number of possessions also change how much yardage is available.
The comparison therefore points toward a play-by-play question: what distances did each team face? Converting third-and-two and third-and-twelve each adds one success to the table, although the situations demand very different gains. Without a distance breakdown, a season conversion percentage mixes the execution of the third-down play with the circumstances created on earlier downs.
Fourth down adds a decision, not an automatic correction
New Orleans also converted 10 of 13 fourth-down attempts; Pittsburgh converted three of six. Those rates are 76.9% and 50.0%, but their samples are small and their situations were selected by coaching decisions. A team may punt after one failed third down and attempt a fourth down after another. Adding all third- and fourth-down conversions together would obscure that sequence and could count two opportunities from the same series.
When examining this matchup's possessions, record third-down distance, result and the next decision together. That separates gaining a new series from choosing to risk another play. The six-game baseline supplies a concrete contrast to investigate; it does not identify a cause, adjust for opponent quality, or tell us how today's game will finish.